Cognivec

The geometry of what goes unsaid

Cognivec measures the shape of meaning in text — and extracts signals that sentiment analysis and LLM summaries cannot see: hidden intent, structural blind spots, and early behavioral change.

Research reports · Contact

A day of news as a cloud of word vectors. The empty ring is a topological hole — a region of meaning the text circles around but never enters. Cognivec finds these holes, names their poles in plain words, and tracks them over time.

Method

Every text — a news day, a year of team chat, a sales call — becomes a cloud of high-dimensional word vectors. Standard NLP asks what the words say. Cognivec asks what shape the cloud has: its dominant axes, its curvature, its topological holes, and how that shape moves day over day.

The core finding, validated across three independent domains: the most predictive information in language is structural, not lexical. What a speaker avoids, how their meaning-space is organized, and how far their words deviate from a model's expectation — these are measurable quantities, and they forecast behavior.

text → embedding cloud → axes · holes · curvature · deviation → named, interpretable signals → forecast

Every signal is interpretable: a hole's poles are named in ordinary words ("people's names" vs. "the economic machine"), an axis reads as a spectrum you can quote. There is no black box between the measurement and the claim.

Evidence

All results come from our research corpus: 20 years of news (≈470k articles across UK and US sources), multi-year team communication archives, and public literary corpora. Market results follow a strict causal protocol — walk-forward out-of-sample testing, placebo controls, and pre-registration of confirmatory runs. Full experiment reports — negative results included — are in the Research section.

Markets: news geometry forecasts currency moves

+1.07Net Sharpe, 10-year walk-forwardDirection of topological holes in daily news → GBPUSD next-day sign; p < 0.007 vs. placebo, refit every 21 days.
+1.15Net Sharpe, 3-signal FX portfolioLow-correlation ensemble on hard currency pairs; p = 0.02, positive in 4 of 5 out-of-sample years.
+1.97Net Sharpe, novelty ensembleSemantic-novelty signal across three pairs; solo signal +0.79 before ensembling.

These are research backtests, not a live track record. Standing offer for funds: an 8-week free forward-test — we send a daily signal file, you judge it entirely in your own framework.

Organizations: behavioral telemetry from work communication

0.93Probe accuracy, self-focus axisA single interpretable direction in embedding space separates self-referential from other-directed language.
0.88AUC, writing-quality geometryGeometric features alone separate canonical authors from amateur prose — talent shows up as consistent deviation.
6 / 6Blind team profiles confirmedPsychological profiles of a real engineering team from chat archives; flagged one attrition risk and one promotion case — both confirmed by management.

A team's shared holes are its collective blind spots — the topics everyone circles and no one names. We deliver them as a map, in words, before they surface as attrition or conflict.

Deception and intent

A lie–truth direction fitted on labeled examples, projected over 20 years of news, independently rediscovers the known scandal and spin peaks of two decades — without being told any of them. The same machinery scores hidden intent and evasion in live conversation, powering our call-center telemetry work.

Why this is different

Working with us

Funds and trading desks: a 6–8 week signal evaluation — daily signal files for a pre-agreed universe, judged in your own backtest and paper-trading stack, success criteria fixed in advance.

Organizations: a 4–6 week pilot on an archive you choose (team chat, support transcripts, sales calls), fully on-premise. Deliverables: a blind-spot map, aggregate risk indicators, and live conversation telemetry where you want it.

Research partners: the instrument set (hole detection, axis fitting, deviation profiling) as a collaboration — your corpus, joint publication, shared tooling.

On ethics. People-analytics deployments run aggregate-first and on-premise: individual profiling only with explicit consent of the person profiled, and raw communication never leaves the client's infrastructure. We decline engagements designed for covert surveillance.

Contact

Vasilii Bubnov — ML researcher, founder
[email protected]

A one-hour technical walkthrough — with real corpora, live — is the fastest way to evaluate whether this fits your stack. Full commercial proposal and methods doc on request. Happy to sign an NDA first.